Monday, May 11, 2009

Will the NDA come to power in New Delhi?

If the NDA has to have a chance of coming to power, the following outcome of the elections is a must.
*Win hugely in Gujarat, Karnataka, Bihar, M.P., Chattisgarh, Assam , Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Contain losses in Rajasthan , Orissa and Punjab. Improve in Delhi, Haryana and U.P. Maintain at least the same number of seats in Maharashtra.
*AIADMK-led front should do well but not sweep the elections in Tamilnadu. If a clean sweep is the outcome, then Congress will snatch the AIADMK away, tempting it with the promise of pulling down the DMK Govt. in Tamilnadu. Otherwise, the AIADMK will align with the NDA.
*The BSP should do just moderately well in U.P. If it does very well, then it will put impossible conditions such as Prime Ministership for Mayawathi, which the NDA can not fulfill. If the BSP gets just about 35 seats, then it will be in a sober mood to do business with the NDA.
*The TDP should do well , but not very well in Andhra Pradesh. In the latter case, the aspirations of the third front and Chandrababu Naidu in particular will rise enormously , resulting in Naidu rebuffing NDA offer.
*The Trinamul Congress should do well in West Bengal and the Left should do badly there so that the Left has no option other than supporting the Congress Party's claim to power, thereby driving the Trinamul Congress to the lap of NDA.

Elections in India - the given and the puzzles

Since the Election Commission has banned exit polls till the completion of voting in all the five phases, there is absolutely no idea regarding the performance of the various political alliances in the concluded phases of the election. . However, certain things are taken for granted and it will be a huge surprise if the results are not in line with these assumptions. These are as follows.
*The Congress Party will lose heavily in Andhra Pradesh and Assam. It will gain handsomely in Rajasthan and Orissa.
*The BJP and NDA will do badly in Delhi and Orissa, but win spectacularly in Bihar and Gujarat.
*The Left will lose seats both in Kerala and West Bengal.
*The RJD, LJP and DMK will lose considerable number of seats this time.
The uncertainty is the following.
*Will the two national parties i.e. Congress and BJP succeed this time in improving their score in the regional parties- dominated Uttar Pradesh?
*Which of the two alliances will do better in Maharashtra?
*Will it be a sweep for the AIADMK-led front in Tamilnadu or will it be just a win in the majority of seats?
*Will Naveen Patnaik's gamble in ditching its 11-year old alliance partner BJP and going it alone in Orissa pay off? Or, would it prove to be a blunder ?
The answer to the above will determine which of the two alliances will get to rule India in June.