Monday, May 11, 2009

Elections in India - the given and the puzzles

Since the Election Commission has banned exit polls till the completion of voting in all the five phases, there is absolutely no idea regarding the performance of the various political alliances in the concluded phases of the election. . However, certain things are taken for granted and it will be a huge surprise if the results are not in line with these assumptions. These are as follows.
*The Congress Party will lose heavily in Andhra Pradesh and Assam. It will gain handsomely in Rajasthan and Orissa.
*The BJP and NDA will do badly in Delhi and Orissa, but win spectacularly in Bihar and Gujarat.
*The Left will lose seats both in Kerala and West Bengal.
*The RJD, LJP and DMK will lose considerable number of seats this time.
The uncertainty is the following.
*Will the two national parties i.e. Congress and BJP succeed this time in improving their score in the regional parties- dominated Uttar Pradesh?
*Which of the two alliances will do better in Maharashtra?
*Will it be a sweep for the AIADMK-led front in Tamilnadu or will it be just a win in the majority of seats?
*Will Naveen Patnaik's gamble in ditching its 11-year old alliance partner BJP and going it alone in Orissa pay off? Or, would it prove to be a blunder ?
The answer to the above will determine which of the two alliances will get to rule India in June.

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